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Team Howe Weekly
6 October 2026
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The Honest Number · Real Insight Weekly
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Lower North Shore · Make or Break Decisions
Make or Break Timing
If the price conversation comes as a surprise,
it came too late.
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| Weekly Newsletter · Tuesday 6 October 2026 · David Howe · 0417 088 833 |
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Dear Readers, |
| Most campaigns are not won or lost on auction day. They are decided much earlier, during a handful of conversations most sellers never see coming. |
| After many years sitting across kitchen tables, I have found that campaigns rarely go wrong because of the market alone. They go wrong because a straight conversation happens too late, or not at all. |
| Here are five scenarios that can make or break a campaign, and what an honest agent should be saying at each one. If you are not hearing it, ask why. |
Scenario 1 The day you sign |
| Everyone is optimistic at the beginning. That is precisely why the rules must be agreed now. |
| What you should hear: |
“Before we launch, let’s agree how we will know whether the campaign is working. Based on comparable campaigns, here are the enquiries, inspections, second inspections and contract requests we should expect by week two. If the numbers come in weaker, or stronger, than expected, we sit down and examine the evidence.” |
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| Watch for · A high appraisal with no checkpoints. That is an agent winning a listing, not planning a campaign. |
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Scenario 2 The first fortnight |
| Every property is new to the market only once. The first two weeks bring its greatest attention and the earliest reliable evidence. |
| What you should hear: |
“We have received fewer enquiries than the number we agreed. It may be too early to recommend a change, but I am telling you now so nothing later comes as a surprise.” |
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| And: |
“Before discussing price, we have reviewed our own campaign: the photography, copy, portal position, inspection times and buyer follow-up. Here is what I found and what we have changed.” |
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| Watch for · “It’s early days. It will pick up.” No numbers, no review date and no plan. |
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Scenario 3 The campaign review |
| If the checkpoints have been missed and the marketing has been checked, all the evidence should go on the table. |
| What you should hear: |
“Here are the competing homes buyers are also considering. Here are the sales since we launched, every meaningful piece of buyer feedback, and what those buyers did or did not do next. Nothing has been left out.” |
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| Watch for · Feedback selected to support a recommendation already made. |
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| If you only hear the negative comments, you are being conditioned rather than informed. |
Scenario 4 Auction week |
| Most Lower North Shore homes sell through an auction campaign. Of 670 sales in 2026 so far, 565 (84%) went through one. Only 16% sold under the hammer. Nearly three in ten sold after it. |
| So, auction week is not just about Saturday. It is when the guide, the reserve and buyer readiness must be discussed openly. |
| What you should hear: |
“The reserve is not the price we would love to achieve. It is the lowest figure you are genuinely prepared to sell for under auction conditions, based on all the evidence we have collected. Let’s agree on it before Saturday morning.” |
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| If the property passes in: |
“This is not the outcome we wanted, but it is the clearest evidence the campaign has produced. The decisions we make in the next hour may matter more than anything we have done in the previous four weeks.” |
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| Watch for · A reserve set in a hurry on auction morning, under pressure and without the full picture. |
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| 2026 Sales by Method |
| Method | Sales | Share |
| Sold before auction | 268 | 40% | | Sold under the hammer | 106 | 16% | | Sold after auction | 191 | 29% | | Auction campaign total | 565 | 84% | | Private treaty | 105 | 16% | | Total 2026 sales | 670 | 100% |
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| Percentages rounded. |
Scenario 5 The hard call |
| Sometimes the evidence is clear, but the seller and agent still see it differently. This is where trust is either confirmed or lost. |
| What you should hear: |
“Let me explain every option, including those that may not earn me a commission. We can adjust and sell, hold and accept that it may take longer, withdraw and relaunch, or lease the property and reconsider later. The decision is yours, made with all the facts.” |
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| Watch for · An agent who keeps telling buyers something they no longer believe, simply to keep the listing. |
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| An honest agent must sometimes be prepared to step back. |
What the numbers say right now |
| Homes that sold: median 30 days on market | | Homes still for sale: median 61 days, and counting | | Price adjustments this week: 25 down, 3 up | | Listed for more than 90 days: 96 of 229 active homes (42%) |
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| Four in ten homes on the market today have been there more than three months. Reductions are outnumbering increases more than eight to one. This is what late price conversations look like in the data. |
Five questions to ask before you sign |
1 | What should tell us the campaign is working by week two? | 2 | What happens if those checkpoints are not met? | 3 | Will we receive all meaningful buyer feedback, so decisions are made on the full picture? | 4 | When and how will we set the reserve? | 5 | How close was your original price advice to the final result across your last ten sales? |
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David’s Take
The market is rarely the whole problem. Homes that sold this period took a median of 30 days. Buyers are out there for well-priced property.
A price conversation before launch costs nothing. The same conversation in week six costs time, momentum and money. Better to hear the truth on day one than be disappointed down the track.
Agree the rules early. Examine the evidence often. Have the difficult conversations before the market forces them on you.
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| If a spring or early 2027 sale is on your radar, the most valuable conversation is the one before you list. Call me for the honest number and the checkpoints that go with it. No obligation. No spin. Just the evidence. |
| David Howe · 0417 088 833 · davidh@lns.rh.com.au |
| Next week · Passed In Is Not Failed. What Happens in the Hour After Auction. |
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore · The Honest Number |
The Price Adjustment — Make or Break Decisions, Part 2 |
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Weekly Market Scorecard
This week (3 Oct) vs last week (26 Sep). Arrow = direction of change only, not good or bad.
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| Metric |
3 Oct |
26 Sep |
Chg |
| New listings | 16 | 17 | ▼ | | Avg listing price (this wk) | $3,975,000 | $5,882,000 | ▼ | | Listings on market | 229 | 233 | ▼ | | New sales | 12 | 20 | ▼ | | Avg sale price (this wk) | $4,208,000 | $5,099,000 | ▼ | | Median DOM (sales this wk) | 40 | 29 | ▲ | | Sale Price Index (SPI) | -6.66% | -5.94% | ▼ | | Withdrawn listings (total) | 177 | 172 | ▲ | | Median listing price (all) | $3,950,000 | $3,965,000 | ▼ | | Median DOM (all listings) | 61 | 61 | — | | Total new listings 2026 | 1,076 | 1,063 | ▲ | | Total sales 2026 | 670 | 658 | ▲ | | Median sale price (all sales) | $3,850,000 | $3,850,000 | — | | Median DOM (all sales) | 30 | 30 | — | | Auctions this weekend | 77 (33%) | 76 (31%) | ▲ | | Withdrawn this week | 8 | 10 | ▼ | | Passed in | 4 | 10 | ▼ | | Price adjusted down | 25 | 22 | ▲ | | Price adjusted up | 3 | 8 | ▼ | | Auction date changed | 10 | 11 | ▼ | | Sydney clearance 2026 (Domain) | 53% | 50% | ▲ | | Sydney clearance last yr (Domain) | 72% | 70% | ▲ | | Sydney median (Domain) | $1,310,000 | $1,620,000 | ▼ | | Sydney total sales (Domain) | $125.9m | $358.7m | ▼ | | NSW clearance (REA) | 36% | 41% | ▼ | | Auctions scheduled (Sydney) | 602 | 1,093 | ▼ |
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▲ higher than last week ▼ lower — unchanged · Team Howe, Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Current listings 229 |
Median price $3.95M |
Median days on mkt 61 |
Stock in $3–5M 40% |
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| Price band |
Listings |
Share of stock |
Median price |
Median DOM |
Read |
| <$2M | 10 | | $1,775,000 | | ● Fast | | $2–3M | 35 | | $2,650,000 | | ● Fast | | $3–4M | 60 | | $3,395,000 | | ● In line | | $4–5M | 32 | | $4,500,000 | | ● In line | | $5–7.5M | 46 | | $5,900,000 | | ● In line | | $7.5–10M | 8 | | $8,250,000 | | ● In line | | $10M+ | 38 | | $13,750,000 | | ● Slow | | All stock | 229 | 100% | $3,950,000 | 61.0 | Benchmark |
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● Fast / In line / Slow vs the 61-day benchmark. · Team Howe, Raine & Horne
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| 40% of current stock sits in the $3–5M range — the deepest part of the market. The $10M+ band accounts for 17% of listings but 43% of total value. At 157 median days, it is by far the slowest to clear, versus 61 days across all stock. |
Auctions / EOI 76 Across the next six weeks |
Current stock 229 All price bands |
Share to auction 33% Auction/EOI ÷ stock |
Peak week 28 Week of 17-Oct |
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Auction campaign calendar
Auctions and expressions of interest by campaign week. Six-week average: 12.7 per week.
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| 10-Oct | 17-Oct | 24-Oct | 31-Oct | 7-Nov | 14-Nov |
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Weekly auction / EOI volume; the week of 17-Oct is the peak at 28. The week of 14-Nov currently has none scheduled. · Team Howe, Raine & Horne
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| Only 33% of the 229 current listings are for auction — a rather low figure, considering it was around 60% in February 2026. |
Summary |
| A quiet week, and the calendar explains most of it. With the Labour Day long weekend, activity simply paused — fewer new listings, only 12 sales, and a sharp drop in Sydney auction volume. None of that is a market signal; it’s the holiday, and it will bounce back next week. |
| Two movements do matter, though. Last week’s flicker of vendor confidence has faded: upward price adjustments fell from 8 back to 3, while reductions rose to 25 — downward pressure is firmly back in front. And despite the thin volume, Sydney’s clearance edged up to 53%, though still about 19 points below where it sat a year ago. |
| The anchors held steady. The median sale price is unchanged at $3.85 million, and the listing median days on market barely moved. In short: a slower week by the calendar, not by the market — buyers still hold the advantage heading deeper into spring. |
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David Howe
Partner Agent · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Charles Tang
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Lower North Shore
140 Sailors Bay Road, Northbridge NSW 2063
The Honest Number · Real Insight Weekly
© Raine & Horne Lower North Shore. You are receiving this because you have previously been in touch with our office about Lower North Shore property.
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