$10 trillion. That's the number that explains why the Australian property market hasn't fallen apart.
 
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore Team Howe Weekly  ·  3 July 2026
 
David’s Take · Weekly Letter

$10 Trillion.

Why the Australian property market hasn’t fallen apart.

 
Dear Readers,
What’s the one number every Australian homeowner should know?
It isn’t interest rates.
It isn’t inflation.
It isn’t auction clearance rates.
It’s $10 trillion.
That’s approximately how much equity Australian homeowners collectively hold in their homes.
Once we understand that one number, today’s property market starts to make a lot more sense.
Why hasn’t the market crashed?
Almost every week someone asks me the same question.
“David, with interest rates where they are, why hasn’t the property market fallen apart?”
It’s a fair question.
The news is full of rising living costs, mortgage pressure and economic uncertainty. On the surface, it feels like property prices should be falling sharply.
But when we look beyond the headlines and study the numbers, a very different story emerges.
A Simple Example
Imagine you own a home worth $3 million.
Your mortgage is $600,000.
Even if property prices fell by 10%, your home would still be worth $2.7 million.
You would still have more than $2 million of equity.
Would you panic and sell?
Probably not.
That’s the financial position many Australian homeowners are in today.
The Numbers Behind the Resilience
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s residential property market is worth approximately $12.8 trillion.
Against that sits around $2.4 trillion in outstanding housing mortgage debt.
In simple terms, Australians collectively hold approximately $10.4 trillion of equity in their homes.
That is an extraordinary financial buffer.
It also explains why the housing market has remained far more resilient than many predicted.
 
Australia residential property equity — $10.4 trillion
Four Things the Headlines Often Miss
1.
Most homeowners don’t have to sell.
The majority of homeowners on Sydney’s Lower North Shore purchased their homes many years ago. Since then, they’ve watched their properties appreciate significantly while steadily reducing their mortgages. That means when they decide to sell, it’s usually because they choose to — not because the bank is forcing the decision. Forced sales remain the exception rather than the rule.
2.
Buyers are still buying — but they’re more selective.
Higher interest rates haven’t eliminated buyers. They’ve simply made buyers more careful. Today’s buyers are better informed than ever. They compare every sale, negotiate harder and recognise value immediately. Homes that are well presented and realistically priced continue to attract strong competition. The homes that struggle are generally those that entered the market with unrealistic price expectations.
3.
We still don’t have enough homes.
Australia continues to build fewer homes than our growing population requires. Here on the Lower North Shore, opportunities to create new detached housing are extremely limited. That imbalance between supply and demand continues to support property values over the long term.
4.
Lower interest rates could bring even more buyers back.
No one knows exactly when interest rates will fall or by how much. History shows that improving borrowing conditions encourage more buyers to enter the market. More buyers competing for quality homes generally creates stronger competition. The vendors who often benefit most are the ones already prepared when confidence returns — not those who wait until everyone else has moved.
David’s Take
Let’s take a look at the numbers for the Lower North Shore.
Lower North Shore market numbers
I’ve been selling homes on Sydney’s Lower North Shore for more than thirty years.
I’ve worked through the Global Financial Crisis.
I’ve worked through COVID.
I’ve worked through the fastest interest-rate increases we’ve seen in decades.
Every one of those markets felt uncertain while we were living through them.
The headlines changed. Human behaviour didn’t.
Buyers still wanted quality homes, and sellers who understood the market consistently achieved the best outcomes.
Property has always moved in cycles. Confidence rises. Confidence falls. Headlines come and go.
But quality property, held over the long term, has consistently rewarded patient owners.
Bottom Line
The Australian property market isn’t perfect.
It never is.
But it also isn’t showing the characteristics of a market under widespread financial distress.
Nearly $10.4 trillion of homeowner equity, combined with limited housing supply and financially stronger homeowners, has created a market that is proving far more resilient than many expected.
Of course, national statistics don’t determine the value of your home.
Your street does.
Your competition does.
Your buyer pool does.
If you’re thinking about selling in the next 12 months and would like to understand where your home genuinely sits in today’s market, I’d be happy to show you the evidence. We’ll look at the comparable sales, your current competition, buyer activity, and where I believe your property fits in today’s market.
No inflated promises. Just an honest opinion backed by evidence.
 
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David Howe
Partner Agent · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Charles Tang
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Lower North Shore
140 Sailors Bay Road, Northbridge NSW 2063
Sources: Team Howe market data, week ending 3 July 2026. Figures are houses only, Lower North Shore. Provided in good faith and may have changed since publication. Interested parties should make their own independent enquiries before relying on any information herein.

© Raine & Horne Lower North Shore. You are receiving this because you have previously been in touch with our office about Lower North Shore property.