Holding firm is not stubbornness. Changing course is not surrender. What to do with the evidence a campaign produces.
 
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Team Howe Weekly
28 September 2026
The Monday Newsletter  ·  Real Insight Weekly
 
Lower North Shore  ·  The Campaign

When to Hold Firm —
and When to Change Course

Holding firm is not stubbornness.
Changing course is not surrender.
 
Last week, we discussed why the first two weeks count. This week comes the harder question: what should you do with the evidence they produce?
Every campaign reaches a decision point: hold your position and give the strategy more time, or accept that the market is sending a message and change course. The answer should never depend on impatience, pride or how much you hoped the property would achieve. It should depend on evidence.
Patience or Denial?
There is an important difference between holding firm and refusing to listen. Holding firm is justified when qualified buyers are engaging, due diligence is progressing and the evidence still supports your position.
Denial is when the same warning signs appear week after week, but nothing changes because the seller or agent dislikes what the market is saying. Changing course is not necessarily an admission that the campaign has failed. Sometimes it is the decision that prevents it from failing.
“Patience is a strategy only when the evidence gives you a reason to wait.”
Hold Firm When
 
qualified buyers are requesting second inspections
 
contracts and building reports are being ordered
 
buyers are discussing terms or preparing offers
 
price feedback is mixed rather than consistently clustered below the guide
 
comparable listings and recent sales support the current position
Premium homes often have narrower buyer pools. A smaller turnout does not necessarily indicate a weak campaign if the right buyers are engaging seriously. The question is not how many people came through — it is whether anyone is moving closer to making a decision.
Change Course When
 
enquiry remains low despite strong advertising exposure
 
inspections occur, but buyers do not return
 
contracts are requested, but no one progresses towards an offer
 
several qualified buyers independently identify the same price gap
 
competing properties are selling while yours remains untouched
 
days on market are increasing without any improvement in engagement
One quiet inspection is not enough evidence. Repeated buyer behaviour, however, should not be explained away. When separate qualified buyers reach the same conclusion without speaking to one another, the market is telling you something.
Before Cutting the Price, Check Everything Else
Price is important, but it is not the only lever available. Before recommending an adjustment, examine the entire campaign:
 
Is the main image strong enough?
 
Does the advertising clearly explain what makes the property different?
 
Is the guide attracting — or excluding — the right buyers?
 
Are the inspection times and access arrangements suitable?
 
Have all qualified buyers, buyers’ agents and database prospects been contacted?
 
Is a presentation or due-diligence concern weakening buyer confidence?
 
Are there issues to address in the building-and-pest report?
 
Is the method of sale still appropriate?
A change in photography, positioning, presentation, access or buyer communication can sometimes revive a campaign. But when the evidence points consistently to price, changing everything except the price merely postpones the conversation.
If You Change, Change With Purpose
One decisive adjustment is usually more effective than a series of small reductions. Repeated changes can make buyers believe the seller is chasing the market down. Instead of creating urgency, they encourage buyers to wait for the next reduction.
Any change should have a clear purpose: reach a new buyer group, generate renewed enquiry, reposition the home against its competition, establish a credible deadline or bring hesitant buyers back into the conversation. The agent should be able to explain what the change is intended to achieve and how its success will be measured. Otherwise, it is movement without strategy.
What to Expect at the Review
A good agent should not recommend holding firm because it is the easier conversation — or recommend a reduction simply because it makes the property easier to sell. Their responsibility is to present the evidence: inspection activity, qualified feedback, comparable sales, competing listings and days-on-market trends.
They must then recommend the course most likely to protect your result. That requires judgement to distinguish temporary resistance from genuine rejection — and courage to tell the seller the truth before time removes their remaining leverage.
David’s Take
The best time to decide when you might change course is before the campaign begins. Agree on what success should look like, which indicators will be measured, what would justify holding firm and what would trigger a review. That prevents one disappointing open home from creating panic — and prevents six weeks of poor evidence from being dismissed as bad luck.
When the evidence does call for change, act decisively. Three mistakes commonly weaken a seller’s position:
Postponing the auction without changing a rejected price guide merely delays the same disappointment.
Reducing the guide in small increments prolongs the campaign and teaches buyers to wait for the next reduction.
Increasing the guide after a passed-in auction, without new evidence, contradicts the market’s response and confuses buyers.
I will hold a position strongly when the evidence supports it. But I will not defend a strategy simply because it was the strategy we started with.
“Holding firm protects value only when the evidence supports the position. Otherwise, it protects the mistake.”
The market does not punish sellers for changing course. It punishes them for recognising the need too late — or changing without a clear purpose.
If you are considering your options and would like a campaign strategy with clear measures and decision points established before launch, reply HOLD and I will send you the Team Howe Campaign Decision Framework.
Next week: “The Price Adjustment”
 
 
 
The Lower North Shore at a Glance
Weekly Market Scorecard
This week (26 Sep) vs last week (19 Sep). Arrow = direction of change only, not good or bad.
Metric 26 Sep 19 Sep Chg
New listings 17 29 ▼
Avg listing price (this wk) $5,882,000 $4,231,000 ▲
Listings on market 233 245 ▼
New sales 20 23 ▼
Avg sale price (this wk) $5,099,000 $3,817,000 ▲
Median DOM (sales this wk) 29 41 ▼
Sale Price Index (SPI) -5.94% -5.33% ▼
Withdrawn listings (total) 172 166 ▲
Median listing price (all) $3,965,000 $4,000,000 ▼
Median DOM (all listings) 61 53 ▲
Total new listings 2026 1,063 1,049 ▲
Total sales 2026 658 638 ▲
Median sale price (all sales) $3,850,000 $3,850,000 —
Median DOM (all sales) 30 30 —
Auctions this weekend 76 (31%) 88 (36%) ▼
Withdrawn this week 10 5 ▲
Passed in 10 10 —
Price adjusted down 22 21 ▲
Price adjusted up 8 2 ▲
Auction date changed 11 9 ▲
Sydney clearance 2026 (Domain) 51% 49% ▲
Sydney clearance last yr (Domain) 70% 74% ▼
Sydney median (Domain) $1,541,500 $1,600,000 ▼
Sydney total sales (Domain) $306.7m $299.6m ▲
NSW clearance (REA) 38% 40% ▼
Auctions scheduled (Sydney) 1,093 861 ▲
▲ higher than last week   ▼ lower   — unchanged  ·  Team Howe, Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Market at a Glance
Where the 233 current listings sit, and how fast each band moves. Charcoal = share of listings; gold = median days on market.
Band Median Share of stock Median days on market Read
<$2M $1.80m
 5% (11)
 17
 Fast
$2–3M $2.70m
 15% (34)
 33
 Fast
$3–4M $3.33m
 25% (59)
 61
 In line
$4–5M $4.50m
 14% (32)
 57
 In line
$5–7.5M $5.95m
 18% (43)
 60
 In line
$7.5–10M $8.00m
 6% (13)
 40
 Fast
$10M+ $13.0m
 18% (41)
 159
 Slow
All stock $4.50m 233 listings · 100% 60 days (median) Benchmark
39% of current stock sits in the $3–5M range — the deepest part of the market. The $10M+ band is 18% of listings but 45% of total value, and at 159 median days it is by far the slowest to clear (all-stock median 60 days).
Lower North Shore · 233 current listings, week to 26 Sep 2026 · Team Howe, Raine & Horne
Key Observations
Supply. There are 233 houses on the market, down 12 this week. New listings remain light, and the expected spring surge has not arrived. Buyers have choice, but stock is not flooding the market.
Price gap. The median asking price is $3.965 million — just a tad above the $3.85 million median buyers are paying. Some 84 listings are priced above $5 million, while most transactions are occurring between $3 million and $5 million.
Stale stock. The median days on market has reached 61 — more than double the 30 days taken by homes that sell. Around 43% of current listings have been available for at least 90 days. At $10 million-plus, the median is 159 days. The pattern is clear: realistically priced homes sell in about a month. The rest wait for a correction that should have occurred earlier.
Auction calendar. Approximately 55 auctions are scheduled across 10 and 17 October — more than half of the five-week pipeline. Those two Saturdays will test spring confidence. Sydney’s clearance rate is 51%, compared with 70% a year ago. Locally, price reductions still outnumbered increases by 22 to eight, while ten auctions passed in or were withdrawn.
How homes sell. Auction is the chosen method for approximately 68% of listings, yet only 16% of sales occur under the hammer. Around 40% sell before auction and 29% afterwards. The auction date works primarily as a deadline that forces decisions — not necessarily as the day the property sells.
Sell-through. Of the 1,063 homes listed this year, 61.9% have sold and 16.2% have been withdrawn. Naremburn, Willoughby, Neutral Bay and Cremorne have recorded the strongest absorption. Chatswood and Castlecrag remain softer, with more than one in five listings withdrawn.
Summary
This is a two-speed market. Realistically priced homes — particularly between $3 million and $5 million — are selling in about a month, often before auction. Overpriced homes are ageing, with buyers gaining more leverage the longer they remain available.
With two heavily concentrated auction weekends approaching, sellers must compete for attention. Any home not priced to the evidence risks being lost in the crowd.
“Price to the sale evidence, not the listing expectations — and take credible pre-auction offers seriously.”
For sellers, the message is to respond decisively when the evidence changes. For buyers, the greatest negotiating opportunity remains among properties listed for more than 90 days, particularly above $5 million.
Figures: 233 current listings and 2026 year-to-date sales across the Lower North Shore, for the week ending 26 September 2026. Sydney clearance rate reported by Domain. Suburb sell-through figures supplied by Team Howe.
 
 
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David Howe
Partner Agent · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Charles Tang
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Lower North Shore
140 Sailors Bay Road, Northbridge NSW 2063
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