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Team Howe Weekly
26 October 2026
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Lower North Shore · The Auction Series
“On the Market”
The three words that change the auction.
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Dear Readers,
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| There’s a moment at every auction when the energy in the room shifts. The bidding has been climbing, the auctioneer pauses, confers quietly with the vendor — and then turns back to the crowd and says three words: |
| “It’s on the market.” |
| Until that moment, every buyer has been bidding in the dark, not knowing whether the seller will actually sell. After it, everything changes. |
| Last week we looked at how to set the reserve — the minimum price at which the property can be sold under the hammer. This week is about what happens when the bidding reaches that number. |
What Those Words Actually Mean |
| When the auctioneer declares the property on the market, they are telling the room the reserve has been met. From that point, when the hammer falls, the highest bidder becomes the purchaser. |
| That’s why the reserve has to be agreed carefully beforehand — because this is the moment it becomes real. |
| In NSW, once the reserve has been met and the hammer falls, the vendor generally cannot refuse to sell because they’ve changed their mind or now want more: |
| Before the hammer falls: the sale is not complete. In exceptional circumstances a vendor may instruct the auctioneer to stop or withdraw — but that can carry contractual, commission and legal consequences. |
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| After the hammer falls: the highest bidder is the purchaser, provided the reserve was met. The buyer signs the contract and pays the deposit, and the vendor cannot simply walk away. |
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| There is no cooling-off period for buyers or sellers on an auction sale. |
Why Those Words Matter |
| Before a property is on the market, buyers hesitate. They’re asking themselves: |
| Is the seller genuinely prepared to sell? |
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| How far away is the reserve? |
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| Am I bidding against another buyer — or just against the seller’s expectations? |
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| Will one more bid actually bring me closer to owning this home? |
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| The instant the property is on the market, those questions disappear. The highest bidder is no longer testing the seller — they are buying the home unless someone goes higher. That is when competition is at its strongest. |
The Timing Is a Judgement Call |
| Declaring too early, without the evidence to support it, can expose the seller unnecessarily. Leaving it too late can be just as costly. |
| If genuine bidders keep hearing that the property is still below reserve, they start to suspect the seller’s expectations are unrealistic. The bidding slows, confidence drains, and buyers quietly begin saving their best offer for the negotiation afterwards. |
| The problem is rarely the announcement. The real question is whether the reserve lets the auctioneer make that call while genuine buyers are still competing. |
Reality Is What Unlocks the Room |
| In a hot market, several determined buyers can carry the price well past the reserve on their own. However, in the current market, i.e. n a selective market — like much of what we’re seeing now — buyers are more cautious. They know the comparable sales, they understand their alternatives, and they won’t chase a home without clear evidence it can actually be bought. |
| That doesn’t mean giving the property away. As we covered last week, the reserve has to be anchored to what qualified buyers have actually demonstrated during the campaign: |
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| If the evidence points consistently to one level and the reserve sits well above it, the property may simply never be declared on the market. The auctioneer cannot manufacture competition around a price no buyer will accept. |
| “Meeting the market is not surrender. It’s giving genuine buyers a reason to compete.” |
Have the Conversation Before Bidding Starts |
| Long before auction day, the seller and agent should have agreed: |
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| what the buyer evidence actually supports |
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| what happens if bidding stops below reserve |
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| how much flexibility the seller has |
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| who is authorised to make the call on the day |
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| how the highest bidder and underbidders will be handled |
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| None of this should be invented mid-auction, while the crowd waits and the strongest buyer starts drifting toward the door. A good strategy is ready for all three outcomes: a sale before auction, a sale under the hammer, or an immediate negotiation afterwards. |
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David’s Take
Being declared on the market doesn’t cap the price. It does the opposite — it tells every buyer in the room the property will sell, and from that moment the reserve stops being the issue. The competition between buyers takes over.
But those three words can only do their job if the seller has been realistic about the evidence. I will always defend a seller’s price when genuine buyer behaviour supports it. When the market keeps delivering the same message, though, holding onto an unsupported number isn’t protecting the property — it’s preventing the sale.
“Before ‘on the market’, buyers negotiate with the seller. Afterwards, they compete with each other.”
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| If you’re considering selling by auction and want a reserve and auction-day strategy built on evidence, reply to this email or call me. |
| Next week — the final chapter on auction: The Vendor Bid — What It Really Tells the Market. Why it’s used, what buyers should read into it, and when it signals the seller and the market are still too far apart. |
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Weekly Market Scorecard
This week (25 Oct) vs last week (17 Oct). Change = direction and movement; percentage-point moves shown as “pts”.
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| Metric |
25 Oct |
17 Oct |
Change |
| New listings |
27 |
44 |
▼ -39% |
| Avg listing price (this wk) |
$5,857,000 |
$5,134,000 |
▲ +14% |
| Listings on market |
281 |
267 |
▲ +5% |
| New sales |
10 |
19 |
▼ -47% |
| Avg sale price (this wk) |
$5,988,000 |
$4,528,000 |
▲ +32% |
| Median DOM (sales this wk) |
40 |
46 |
▼ -13% |
| Sale Price Index (SPI) |
-7.94% |
-7.49% |
▼ -0.5 pts |
| Withdrawn listings (total) |
180 |
177 |
▲ +2% |
| Median listing price (all) |
$3,950,000 |
$3,950,000 |
— 0% |
| Median DOM (all listings) |
53 |
51 |
▲ +4% |
| Total listings 2026 |
1,168 |
1,142 |
▲ +2% |
| Total sales 2026 |
707 |
697 |
▲ +1% |
| Median sale price (all sales) |
$3,830,000 |
$3,850,000 |
▼ -0.5% |
| Median DOM (all sales) |
30 |
30 |
— 0% |
| Auctions this weekend |
115 (41%) |
101 (38%) |
▲ +14% |
| Withdrawn this week |
5 |
9 |
▼ -44% |
| Passed in |
11 |
10 |
▲ +10% |
| Price adjusted down |
21 |
21 |
— 0% |
| Price adjusted up |
2 |
8 |
▼ -75% |
| Auction date changed |
12 |
9 |
▲ +33% |
| Sydney clearance 2026 (Domain) |
45% |
51% |
▼ -6 pts |
| Sydney clearance last yr (Domain) |
70% |
70% |
— 0 pts |
| Sydney median (Domain) |
$1,650,000 |
$1,430,000 |
▲ +15% |
| Sydney total sales (Domain) |
$188.6m |
$314.9m |
▼ -40% |
| NSW clearance (REA) |
34% |
41% |
▼ -7 pts |
| Auctions scheduled (Sydney) |
946 |
916 |
▲ +3% |
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▲ higher than last week ▼ lower — unchanged · “pts” = percentage-point move · Team Howe, Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Note: weekly averages (sale/listing price) swing on small samples — only 10 sales this week — and Domain’s Sydney-wide weekly figures are volatile; read medians for the trend.
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2026 year to date by suburb
Change columns compare 2026 YTD with full-year 2025. Suburbs with only a handful of sales are statistically noisy.
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| Suburb | Sales | Median | vs 2025 | DOM | vs 2025 |
| Mosman |
131 |
$5.10m |
▼ -15.0% |
30 |
▲ +3 |
| Chatswood |
89 |
$3.29m |
▼ -2.7% |
39 |
▲ +12 |
| Willoughby |
89 |
$3.60m |
▼ -2.7% |
29 |
▼ -3 |
| Hunters Hill |
61 |
$4.00m |
▼ -13.0% |
31 |
▲ +1 |
| Cremorne / Cremorne Point |
42 |
$4.55m |
▲ +1.1% |
31 |
▲ +1 |
| Naremburn |
40 |
$3.19m |
▲ +3.8% |
28 |
▲ +13 |
| Northbridge |
40 |
$5.26m |
▼ -0.7% |
44 |
▼ -18 |
| Neutral Bay |
31 |
$3.35m |
▲ +13.5% |
28 |
▲ +2 |
| Cammeray |
29 |
$3.58m |
▼ -8.1% |
28 |
▲ +3 |
| Castle Cove |
25 |
$3.65m |
▼ -7.4% |
34 |
▲ +6 |
| Crows Nest |
24 |
$2.66m |
▼ -13.4% |
26 |
▲ +3 |
| Castlecrag |
21 |
$4.02m |
▼ -16.6% |
56 |
▲ +27 |
| Artarmon |
20 |
$3.29m |
▼ -11.8% |
27 |
▲ +4 |
| North Sydney |
17 |
$3.37m |
▲ +6.4% |
23 |
▲ +1 |
| Middle Cove |
15 |
$3.15m |
▼ -12.6% |
43 |
▲ +18 |
| Wollstonecraft |
11 |
$5.00m |
▼ -8.3% |
33 |
▲ +4 |
| McMahons Point |
10 |
$4.13m |
▲ +5.8% |
29 |
▲ +1 |
| Kirribilli |
4 |
$7.50m |
▲ +74.4% |
129 |
▲ +106 |
| Lavender Bay |
4 |
$4.39m |
▼ -12.7% |
53 |
▲ +33 |
| Waverton |
4 |
$3.73m |
▼ -36.8% |
21 |
▼ -2 |
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Median = median sale price · DOM = median days on market (+ = slower than 2025) · Team Howe, Raine & Horne Lower North Shore |
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Auction pipeline
115 of 281 current listings (41%) are booked in for auction over the next six auction dates.
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| 31 Oct |
7 Nov |
14 Nov |
21 Nov |
28 Nov |
5 Dec |
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The 21 and 28 November and 5 December dates are still filling and are shown muted. · Team Howe, Raine & Horne |
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David’s Summary |
| Lower North Shore houses: stock builds as sales slow |
| What moved |
| New sales fell from 19 to 10, down 47.4%, while new listings dropped from 44 to 27, down 38.6%. |
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| Total listings nevertheless rose from 267 to 281, up 5.2%. Stock is concentrated in Mosman (77), Chatswood (46) and Willoughby (28). |
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| Average sale price jumped from $4,528,000 to $5,988,000, up 32.2%, but the sale price index versus guide weakened from -7.49% to -7.94%, down 0.45 percentage points. |
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| Auctions booked increased from 101 to 115, up 13.9%. Passed-in properties edged from 10 to 11, while price cuts stayed at 21. |
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| What it suggests |
| More available stock alongside fewer sales suggests buyers have more choice. |
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| The higher average sale price is not clear evidence of stronger values: only 10 sales were recorded, and the mix of homes sold could explain the jump. |
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| Continuing price cuts and a weaker result against guides suggest pricing expectations remain under pressure. |
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David Howe
Partner Agent · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Taka Shino
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Lower North Shore
140 Sailors Bay Road, Northbridge NSW 2063
Real Insight Weekly
© Raine & Horne Lower North Shore. You are receiving this because you have previously been in touch with our office about Lower North Shore property.
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