What really happens when the hammer doesn’t fall. More Lower North Shore homes sell after auction than under the hammer.
 
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Team Howe Weekly
12 October 2026
The Weekend Edition  ·  Real Insight Weekly
 
Lower North Shore  ·  After the Auction

Passed In Is Not Failed

What really happens when
the hammer doesn’t fall.
 

Dear Readers,

There is a moment at auction every seller dreads.
The bidding slows. The auctioneer pauses. The property is passed in, and the crowd begins to drift away.
In that silence, it can feel as though the entire campaign has failed in public.
Usually, it hasn’t.
More often, this is where the next—and sometimes most important—stage of the sale begins.
What “Passed In” Actually Means
A property is passed in when bidding does not reach the reserve—the minimum price the seller has authorised the auctioneer to accept.
It does not necessarily mean nobody wants the property. It means the highest bid on the day remained below the seller’s position.
In NSW, the highest bidder generally receives the first opportunity to negotiate with the seller.
The auction has identified the most committed buyer, established their current position and created an immediate opportunity to negotiate.
That is not failure. It is evidence.
The Auction Has Already Done Much of Its Job
By the time bidding stops, the campaign has:
 
created a deadline
 
separated serious buyers from casual observers
 
completed much of the buyers’ due diligence
 
revealed who is prepared to bid
 
established where the market sits on that day
The negotiation that follows is not blind.
You know the highest bidder’s position. They know they have the first opportunity to negotiate—but that the underbidders may still be interested.
That can be a far stronger position than receiving one private-treaty offer without a deadline or visible competition.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Where auction homes actually sell — 2026
More homes sell AFTER the auction (193) than under the hammer (108). A pass-in isn’t the end — it’s the next stage.
Sold pre-auction
 40% (272)
Sold after auction
 28% (193)
Sold AT auction
 16% (108)
Private treaty
 15% (105)
678 house sales, Lower North Shore year to date · 573 through an auction campaign · median sale price $3.84m · Team Howe, Raine & Horne
Of the 573 Lower North Shore homes sold through an auction campaign this year:
 
272 sold before auction
 
108 sold under the hammer
 
193 sold after auction
More homes sold after auction than under the hammer.
Almost one-third of auction-campaign sales occurred after auction day, while only 16% of all 678 house sales this year happened under the hammer.
The auction date is therefore more than a single opportunity to sell.
It is a deadline that forces buyers to complete their due diligence, establish their position and make a decision.
What Happens After a Property Passes In
The agent should move immediately to the highest bidder and establish what it would take to reach an agreement.
At the same time, the underbidders should remain engaged. The highest bidder has the first opportunity to negotiate—not an unlimited opportunity.
The seller must then assess the reserve against live evidence:
 
How close was the highest bid?
 
How many genuine bidders participated?
 
Is the highest bidder able and ready to exchange?
 
Are the underbidders still prepared to negotiate?
 
Does holding the reserve protect value—or risk losing the strongest buyer?
Handled well, the period immediately following the auction can produce what the public bidding could not: a negotiated agreement grounded in genuine buyer behaviour.
If contracts are exchanged on the same day after a property is passed in, i.e. before midnight, NSW’s standard cooling-off period does not apply.
That is why the agent, auctioneer, seller and solicitor must all be prepared before auction day—not begin making up the process afterwards.
The Result Was Often Decided Weeks Earlier
Here is the uncomfortable truth:
Whether the hammer falls is often determined well before auction day—by the preparation, price positioning and reserve.
A home positioned to the evidence may pass in and still sell because the gap between the strongest buyer and the seller is negotiable.
A home priced to hope may pass in without a genuine bid because no buyer accepted the starting position in the first place.
That is the distinction.
A pass-in with a committed bidder just below reserve is a negotiation in progress.
A pass-in with no genuine bidding is a pricing message—and the sooner it is understood, the more leverage the seller retains.
David’s Take
Passed in is not failed.
It is the auction doing its quieter job: identifying the genuine buyers, establishing their position and telling the seller the truth about price.
The failure is not the pass-in itself.
The failure is arriving at auction day with a reserve built on hope rather than evidence—and no plan for what happens if bidding stops below it.
Set the position properly and the process can work whether the property sells before auction, under the hammer or through negotiation afterwards.
“The hammer is one moment. The auction campaign is the entire process.”
 
If you are considering selling by auction and want a reserve and campaign strategy built on evidence—not hope—reply to this email or call me.
Next week:  Setting the Reserve—The Number That Decides Who Holds the Leverage.
Weekly Market Scorecard
This week (10 Oct) vs last week (3 Oct). Change = direction and movement; percentage-point moves shown as “pts”.
Metric 10 Oct 3 Oct Change
New listings 33 16 ▲ +106%
Avg listing price (this wk) $4,677,000 $3,975,000 ▲ +18%
Listings on market 251 231 ▲ +9%
New sales 8 12 ▼ -33%
Avg sale price (this wk) $2,620,000 $4,212,000 ▼ -38%
Median DOM (sales this wk) 29 40 ▼ -28%
Sale Price Index (SPI) -11.98% -6.61% ▼ -5.4 pts
Withdrawn listings (total) 175 177 ▼ -1%
Median listing price (all) $3,950,000 $3,950,000 — 0%
Median DOM (all listings) 56 61 ▼ -8%
Total new listings 2026 1,104 1,076 ▲ +3%
Total sales 2026 678 670 ▲ +1%
Median sale price (all sales) $3,840,000 $3,850,000 ▼ -0.3%
Median DOM (all sales) 30 30 — 0%
Auctions this weekend 83 (33%) 77 (33%) ▲ +8%
Withdrawn this week 2 8 ▼ -75%
Passed in 15 4 ▲ +275%
Price adjusted down 13 25 ▼ -48%
Price adjusted up 2 3 ▼ -33%
Auction date changed 8 10 ▼ -20%
Sydney clearance 2026 (Domain) 46% 53% ▼ -7 pts
Sydney clearance last yr (Domain) 69% 72% ▼ -3 pts
Sydney median (Domain) $1,370,000 $1,315,000 ▲ +4%
Sydney total sales (Domain) $177.0m $138.2m ▲ +28%
NSW clearance (REA) 37% 36% ▲ +1 pt
Auctions scheduled (Sydney) 921 602 ▲ +53%
▲ higher than last week   ▼ lower   — unchanged  ·  “pts” = percentage-point move  ·  Team Howe, Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Price Range vs Days on Market
251 current listings. Bar = median days on market; dashed line = all-stock median (55 days).
median 55 days ▾
<$2M (11) $1.60m
31  
$2–3M (35) $2.60m
40  
$3–4M (68) $3.40m
  61.5
$4–5M (38) $4.50m
48  
$5–7.5M (49) $5.95m
53  
$7.5–10M (11) $8.00m
40  
$10M+ (39) $14.5m
  152
 
Fast
 
In line
 
Slow
Well-priced stock clears around a month; the $10M+ band (152 days) is nearly 3x the all-stock median and drags the whole picture out.
Lower North Shore · 251 current on-market listings, as at 12 Oct 2026 · Team Howe, Raine & Horne · bands with <8 listings read on thin samples.
Key Observations
The Real Talk
My instinct tells me that the genuine available stock is low. Discount the 251 listings as of today. so these counts are inflated by old carryover.
The Stock Illusion
251 current listings by days on market. Half the market (122) has sat for more than 60 days.
Active · ≤60 days
129 listings (51%)
Ageing · 60+ days
122 listings (49%)
26%
66
 
25%
63
 
9%
23
 
16%
39
 
15%
37
 
9%
23
 
0–30 31–60 61–90 91–180 181–365 365+
Days on market
 
Days on marketListingsShare
0–30 (fresh)6626%
31–606325%
61–90239%
91–1803916%
181–3653715%
Over a year239%
Total251100%
Median DOM: 55 days.
Effective stock is low. Three ways to see it:
 
Nearly half the market is stale. 122 listings (49%) have been on the market more than 60 days. 99 (39%) are past 90 days. 60 (24%) have sat for more than six months, and 23 (9%) for over a year — some for years (one Northbridge land listing has been on since 2010).
 
Genuinely fresh stock is thin. Only 66 listings (26%) are 30 days or newer. If a buyer is looking at homes that came to market this month, the real menu is 66, not 251.
 
The “available and sellable” pool is about half the headline. Listings 60 days or newer — the ones still carrying campaign momentum — number 129 (51%). Everything older has already been seen by the active buyer pool and passed over at its current price.
What it means: the 251 figure overstates choice. A large share of it is zombie stock — homes that are overpriced, have a problem (land-value plays, compliance, position), or belong to vendors who aren’t truly motivated. For a well-prepared, well-priced new listing, the real competition isn’t 251 homes; it’s the ~66 fresh ones, because tired listings don’t compete — buyers have already dismissed them.
And consistent with last week’s chart, the stale overhang is concentrated at the top end — most of the year-plus listings are $5M+ and especially $10M+, where median DOM runs 150+ days. The sub-$5M market, where the buyers are, turns over far faster.
The Lower North Shore doesn’t have a stock glut — it has a stock illusion. Half of what’s “on the market” isn’t really in play.
 
 
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David Howe
Partner Agent · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
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Taka Shino
Team Howe · Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Raine & Horne Lower North Shore
Lower North Shore
140 Sailors Bay Road, Northbridge NSW 2063
The Weekend Edition · Real Insight Weekly

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